In this Article, I am going to explain How to perform a Scenario Modelling exercise?
Why should we care about Scenario Modelling? Fair point, let me explain. Recently I read an insightful post titled ” Introducing 2022, The Year of Agility | XM Institute ” from Bruce Temkin, Godfather of CX & Head of the XM Institute. In this post, Bruce talks about How organizations operate and why leaders need to dramatically rethink about how they operate. He goes on to explain how 2022 will be a good time to embrace more agility-oriented practices and what changes we must consider.
One of the agility-oriented practices he recommends is Scenario Modeling. He recommends that we should avoid assuming that we know enough at the beginning of the year to lock into a strategy instead, we must consider possible scenarios and identify the best course of action for each one. This process of planning for different scenarios will prepare us to respond to many variations.
Scenario Modeling performed in advance helps you avoid being in a reactive state, you would not only minimize risk, but most importantly be better prepared to maximise opportunities.
Unfortunately, Scenario Modeling is not a very common practice across all business teams and takes considerable practice to get it right.
Why do teams fail at Scenario Modeling?
- Reason #1 : One of the primary challenges of scenario modeling is to find the real needs of customers when customers may not themselves know what the problem is or not know how to describe the solutions they need.
- Reason #2: Most often people participating in these exercises are a part of the problem which they are trying to predict and their own biases may influence the context.
- Reason #3: Modeling or predicting permutations itself is not enough, you also need to define milestones, triggers and business rules in advance.
Now that we have spoken about why we need Scenario Modeling and what are the challenges that make teams fail, lets see how you can overcome all these problems and model an ideal Scenario planning exercise!
Here’s how CX teams can perform Scenario Modeling, step by step:
Step 1: Focus on the User Persona!
Scenario Models are great when they are focused on user / customer personas that are impacted by them.
- Who is the persona?
- What are their goals? (Motivators)
- Why do they want to work with us? (Intent)
- When would they work with us? (including obstacles).
- Where would they work with us? (including obstacles).
Step 2: IFTTT – If This Then These! Workshop
IFTTT derives its name from the programming conditional statement “if this, then that.” If you did not know, then there is a beautiful website called IFTTT that can help you automate your life.
In the world of Scenario Modeling, I would rephrase IFTTT to If This, Then These. Simply because you would have multiple streams of possibilities and you need to account for as many as you can (mostly think of).
Organize a design thinking workshop (invite cross functional teams) wherein you let the team Map all the different possibilities into a Mind map or visio chart. Encourage wild & unrealistic ideas. The goal is to make sure people arent holding back because they think a scenario is not possible. If we look around, everything that has happened on earth in the last 2 years would have been termed impossible. Make sure people dont associate Scenarios with “Who” proposed them to avoid bias and herd mentality.
Step 3: Identify Triggers & Scale Possibilities!
Following the IFTTT workshop, set up a focussed discussion to review the scenarios the previous group came up with. The objective is to help all participants visualize the scenarios and agree on the KPIs & cues that would help identify each of them. For example, Scenario X is triggered if there is another lockdown, or Scenario Y is triggered if there is a 5% decrease in demand.
Once you have identified the triggers, engage in a constructuve debate on which of those scenarios is ideal or worse. Also identify which of those has a higher / lower propsensity to happen.
Step 4: Agree & Document Actions!
Now that we have performed the steps listed above, the next thing to do is ideate & agree on what you would do if any of these scenarios get triggered. Document your strategy to address these permutations and create a training guide for managers. You do not need to circulate all the strategies across the entire organization to avoid confusing everyone. However, team / functional leads would benefit from knowing that they need to watch out for some triggers and refer to a prescribed strategy on how to deal with them if they encounter them.
Step 5: Measure!
Needless to say, but I must say. A periodic review will ensure you stay nimble and proactive. Continuous improvement is only possible if you are continuously measuring, learning and adapting.
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